7.5 Existing and Future Conditions Analysis

Existing conditions analysis provides a baseline or overview of the current state of a route or corridor. Future conditions analysis helps determine the state of a route or corridor in the horizon year.
Traffic projections are a key element of a planning study and for future conditions analysis. TxDOT’s forecasting analysis process is currently classified into two different categories: TPP-led and District-led. The District provides TPP Traffic Analysis Branch a notification of the District Led Traffic Analysis. TPP maintains the statewide system of records for traffic forecasting. For additional guidance on traffic volume and forecasting, refer to the TxDOT TPP Traffic Forecasting Analysis Standard Operating Procedures. Coordinate with the TxDOT project manager to gain access to the latest documents.
More detailed information regarding the overall process can be found in
Chapter 3, Section 3.1
. The following subsections discuss information regarding traffic projections.

7.5.1 Traffic Projections

Existing traffic volumes are the basis for traffic projections. Existing traffic volumes are developed from traffic counts that are typically collected as part of the overall data collection effort.
Historical traffic data can be obtained from STARS. Growth rate is typically determined for a corridor based on 20-year historical growth rates, while considering the travel demand model outputs and planned developments. Depending on the type of corridor and the overall length, a corridor may have different growth rates along its segments. Prior to developing future traffic projections, a Traffic Projections Methodology Memorandum is typically prepared outlining the growth rate and approach to develop traffic projections. Include any assumptions regarding the development of growth rates in the memorandum. This memorandum is submitted to TPP or the reviewing District for approval prior to proceeding with traffic projections. An
example
outline for Traffic Projections Methodology Memorandum is provided in
Appendix D, Section 2 – Traffic Projections Methodology Memorandum Outline
.
Future traffic projections are developed based on traffic data factors and approved growth rates. Typical traffic forecasts include the project opening year, the design year (i.e., opening year plus 20 years), and the pavement design year (i.e., opening year plus 30 years). Once traffic projections are estimated, they need to be balanced throughout the corridor. More detailed information regarding the development of growth rates, volume balancing, and future traffic projections is provided in
Chapter 3
.
After traffic projections are approved, the Traffic Analysis for Highway Design (TAHD) table is developed in coordination with TPP. See
Chapter 3, Section 3.2
for more information on the traffic data factors and the TAHD table.

7.5.2 AM and PM Peak Hour Traffic Projections

Determine the peak hour percentages in terms of the percentage of total daily traffic that is occurring in the AM/PM peak hour for both the peak hours. The percentages are intended to be a representation of the existing traffic patterns. Typically, traffic counts are collected in the form of TMCs and/or tube/camera counts. Assuming traffic counts are taken on a typical weekday with no major events or disruptions, they represent peak hour percentages for the AM and PM K factors. The peak hour percentages are then applied to the ADT to develop projected AM and PM peak hour volumes. Validate the traffic counts collected against STARS data, previous counts, or traffic forecasts. Please note that AM and PM peak hours are not always inversely related.
Turning movement traffic projections are estimated by applying existing turning movement count percentages at each approach to the ADT volumes. The TMCs are typically rounded to 50-vehicle increments, to avoid an overestimation of traffic on side streets. Traffic projections are then balanced along the corridor.

7.5.3 Analysis Tools and Performance Measures

A corridor planning project involves evaluating and comparing different alternatives to determine how closely they meet the study goals and objectives. lists objectives for a typical corridor planning project. The performance measures quantify how objectives perform when compared to existing or future conditions. Note that the table does not include all objectives, performance measures, sources of data, or tools for analyzing a corridor planning project.
is provided as a first step and guide for establishing basic objectives and how to measure them. The table provides sources of data as well as tools that can be used to evaluate the performance measures. Scoring metrics are generally developed to rank the different performance measures based on stakeholder feedback, public involvement, and the goals and objectives of the study.
In addition to the performance measures listed in , other evaluation criteria could be considered, such as ROW availability, environmental impacts, and public input.
Table 7-1: Corridor Planning Performance Measures
Objectives
Performance Measures
Sources and Types of Data
Tools
1
Mobility
  • LOS and Delay
  • Travel time
  • Free flow speed vs. peak period speed
  • Travel time reliability
  • V/C Ratio
  • INRIX, StreetLight, Replica, Wejo, NPMRDS, American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), and Geotab
  • Traffic counts
  • Aerial imagery
  • Online database
  • Travel demand model outputs
  • Deterministic analysis
  • CAP-X
    • HCM analysis
Safety
  • Number of fatal or serious injury crashes
  • Crash rate compared to statewide average for a similar facility type
  • Number of pedestrian and bicycle related crashes
  • Number of similar types of crashes
  • CRIS
  • Aerial Imagery
  • As-builts
  • GIS software
  • HSM spreadsheets
  • IHSDM
  • ISATe
  • HSS
  • TxDOT HSM Spreadsheet Tools
Pedestrians and Bicyclists
  • Number of marked crossings within a corridor
  • Width of bike lane or sidewalk
  • Length of crosswalks
  • Crosswalk lighting
  • Big Data
  • Field visit
  • Aerial imagery
  • Strava
  • HCM analysis
  • Pedestrian and bicycle assessment inventory
Transit
  • Person throughput versus vehicular throughput
  • Number and spacing of transit stops on corridor
  • Service frequency
  • Ridership
  • On-time service (reliability)
  • Transit agency
  • Aerial imagery
  • Microsimulation
  • Travel demand modeling
Freight
  • Vehicle classification and percentage
  • Truck flows into and out of areas
  • Commodity Flow Surveys (CFS)
  • Vehicle Travel Information System (VTRIS)
  • Transearch
  • Geotab
  • Freight Analysis Framework (FAF)
  • Sketch Level or Macroscopic analysis
  • Travel demand modeling
  • Transearch
Access Management
  • Driveway spacing and access density
  • Number of median openings
  • Conflicting driveways on a two-way left turn lane
  • As-builts, CAD drawings, and survey files
  • Aerial imagery
  • Microsimulation
  • HCM analysis
Economic Analysis and Development
  • Providing connectivity
  • Population
  • GDP
  • Total Employment
  • Industries Served
  • Agency GIS database
  • U.S Census Bureau
  • IHS Markit
  • Texas Demographic Center
  • US Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • US Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • GIS software
  • Travel demand modeling
1
The tools presented here are general tools used for various levels of analysis. Depending on the level of analysis, different tools could be needed. Individual analysis chapters have more information regarding the type of tool to use for different levels of analysis.

7.5.4 Existing Conditions Analysis

Existing conditions analysis is a key step in evaluating a corridor. An existing conditions analysis provides a baseline condition to compare future improvements. It also helps determine if the overall improvements being recommended provide a benefit and meet the study goals. The existing conditions analysis includes various types of analysis, depending on the type of corridor planning project. The analysis level for corridor studies is typically planning-stage and the types of tools to be used for the analysis are typically sketch-level or macroscopic tools. This may include tools such as CAP-X, GIS, or TDM outputs, depending on the extents of the analysis and scope of work. Ultimately, the type of tool and analysis is determined based on the objectives and the corresponding MOEs that quantify the corridor study goals. These objectives and MOEs may be selected from above. The same analysis tools and MOEs are typically used for evaluating both existing and future conditions. The chapters from this document listed below provide more detail on the types of analysis that may be performed to evaluate existing conditions
  • Traffic Analysis Methodology, Tools, and MOE (Chapter 4); 7-17 2024 | Traffic and Safety Analysis Procedures Manual
  • Segment Analysis (Chapter 9);
  • Intersection Analysis (Chapter 10);
  • Interchange Analysis (Chapter 11);
  • Roundabout Analysis (Chapter 12);
  • Microsimulation (Chapter 13); and
  • Multimodal Analysis (Chapter 14)

7.5.5 Future Conditions Analysis

A future conditions analysis is developed using the traffic projections and analyzing future nobuild and build conditions using the projected traffic volumes. Traffic analysis of future conditions is typically based on opening year and/or design year. Typically, traffic volumes for future no-build and build conditions analysis remain the same. However, there could be some exceptions for new alignment routes, access modifications, and existing facilities with oversaturated conditions. Discuss and document any exceptions.
The
No-build analysis
is developed using the existing conditions plus any committed projects that could be built between the existing year and future analysis year. This analysis determines the impact of future traffic growth on MOEs if existing conditions and committed projects remain in the future. It also provides a comparison between the current conditions (existing conditions analysis) and traffic conditions in the future if no further action is taken.
The
Build conditions analysis
is developed by analyzing improvements based on issues observed in the existing conditions and future no-build conditions. Build conditions analysis includes alternatives analysis, which is a decision-making process where multiple alternatives are evaluated to select a preferred alternative. When evaluating future conditions, it is important to have several mitigation options, as some could be more favorable than others, based on stakeholder input, ROW impacts, the B/C ratio, or environmental factors. To evaluate multiple alternatives, develop a screening process and an evaluation matrix based on MOEs, stakeholder inputs, and other constraints. See
Chapter 8
for more information on developing alternatives, screening process, and evaluating alternatives.

7.5.6 Safety Analysis

There may be instances where a corridor does not have congestion-related issues, but safety is an issue due to roadway geometry, incomplete traffic control, faulty pavement markings, low quality signage, or other reasons. Rural segments of corridors are often more inclined to have safety-related issues than congestion-related issues.
Similar to traffic analysis, safety analysis is performed for two conditions, existing and future. The purpose of safety analysis for existing conditions is to identify existing safety issues and develop safety countermeasures for those issues. Existing conditions safety analysis methods include:
  • Historical crash data analysis;
    • This includes crash types, contributing factors, crash rates,
    • crash severities, crash heat maps, and other crash data-related analysis to help Traffic and Safety Analysis Procedures Manual | 2024 7-18 understand safety-related issues on the corridor.
  • PSI Analysis; and
  • Identifying countermeasures
The purpose of the future safety conditions analysis is to consider safety implications of alternatives that have been developed. Future conditions analysis can be conducted in a variety of methods, some of which are listed below.
  • Relative comparison of CMFs; and
  • HSM Part C Predictive Method
More information regarding how to perform existing and future safety analysis is presented in
Chapter 5
and
Chapter 6
.